Before- with possibility that "Mrs. Watanabe" that shows a sense of existence as seller of yen turns to purchaser of yen this time
The perception of the individual investor's in ..housewife who handles the FX trade (foreign exchange margin transaction).. Japan being likely being likely to being be going to keep from next month the enforcement of "Margin magnification" (leverage factor ratio) regulation, to eliminate "Yen carry trade (trade in which yen of the low interest rate is sold and the high interest rate currency is bought)" in the foreign exchange market, and to invite an unexpected strong yen has come out.
The leverage of the FX trade is limited to 50 times or less by revising "Cabinet Office Rei concerning financial instrument trade Hitoshi" promulgated last August on August 1 this year.
Financial Services Agency judges that there is a problem in the high leverage trade from the angle of client safeguard and trader's risk management and over-competitions though being able to do times the foreign currency investment how many by few funds (margin) is a charm of the FX trade.
The upper limit of the leverage is scheduled to be reduced up to 25 times next August.
Analysis , saying that "The influence of the direction of the strong yen goes out by canceling the position if the investor of not continuing comes out from the trade in the investor who has done the high leverage trade up to now" though a Kameoka Hiroshitsgi senior economist in the Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd. economic monetary survey part thinks the influence given to the rate of exchange of the leverage regulation to be a basically limited.
Especially, it is specified, "The influence goes out easily of the point where the dimension of the margin transaction is large comparatively compared with Marquette like Aussie dollar etc.".
- Demand for Aussie dollar and yen and "Unreasonably setback" also
The leverage needs in the FX trade and a large sum of margin is needed in the low.
Therefore, should the margin of the addition be offered the deposit to the trader of FX to sustain an existing position or moderation Shite leave Pojon in the individual investor who is dealing with it by 50 times or more a high leverage in necessary minimum margin along with the leverage regulation enforcement in August.
Short commitment forehead of yen of the net that subtracted yen long positions from yen short positions and "Yen carry forehead" became 1,882,500,000,000 yen of the proportion 59% increase according to the shop FX moon next preliminary figure that the financial futures transaction industry association had brought together by the cooperation of 57 participation member companies at the end of the previous month at the end of June.
Yen short commitment forehead of the net to the US dollar was 782 billion 938 million yen, a dollar toward Australia was 424 billion 409 million yen, and euro was 317 billion 817 million yen.
On the other hand, Cacohitai in yen of Aussie dollar became 2,382,450,000 Aussie dollar of the the greatest in the past in FX bourse "365" that the Tokyo financial transaction place managed on the fifth this month. 1,716,960,000 Aussie dollar on the 22nd.
The senior currency strategist and Mr. Sue thoron (Hong Kong in service) in royal bank Ob Canada (RBC) are reports dated the 16th, and "There is a possibility of unreasonably decreasing" of demand for the most popular Aussie dollar and yen among the investor in Japan is since August when the leverage regulation is enforced. In the phase where Aussie dollar rose to one Aussie dollar = 79.50 yen, it was recommended to just move to the Aussie dollar sales and the yen buying for 72 yen in expectation of the reactionary fall at 72.50 yen.
Mrs. Watanabe
The FX trade that appears in foreign exchange law (foreign exchange and foreign trade control law) revision of 98 years is an enlargement in rapidity in the background of the management difficulty in the country by the prolonged ultra low money rate etc.In the depreciation in yen phase put at 07 middle of year, it came for the individual investor in Japan that did the FX trade to attract the attention of the marketplace as a seller of main yen, and to be called, "Mrs. Watanabe" because of overseas media.
On the other hand, there are circumstances that earning the swap point (earnings that produce from the interest rate differential) by the international interest-spread moderation by a worldwide recession since it is financial critical of 08 years became difficult, too and making the FX trade a high leverage accelerates. The trader who provided the leverage which the inside and hundreds of times to the client win competition intensified also appeared.
Mr. Kameoka of Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd.｢Leverage..high..margin..add..trade..continue..investor..considerably..provide..to begin with..extreme..leverage..just..margin..put..investor..too much..provide.There might not be as much as 10 percent investor of ..trade.. not actually continuing by the leverage regulation enforcement though it merely estimates. ｣It reads.
- The volatility advance also
The proportion answered whether the leverage chiefly used by the FX investment is "100 times", "Any more" is a setback lingua in implementation lingua "Questionnaire survey concerning the investment trend" from 7.3% and 13.6% at the previous month at the end of a month from the middle of June king of the business foreign exchange coal oil mixture for the opening of an account person. Ten times (29.0%), and 40 time (19.7%)20 times (16.7%) continued to many.
Managing director Tsuyoshi Okada of foreign exchange coal oil mixture General Institute｢The trade position in a high lever that exceeds 100 times is remarkably in the decreasing tendency as movement with which it provides from the consequence of the monthly survey to the new leverage regulation.
The FX investor seem to be in the rehearsal mode to correspond to a new system independently. ｣With the indication. It is said, "The note is necessary so that there is a risk that the volatility in daytime rises after a new system" on that.
The foreign exchange transaction amount during April, '09 is one business day 254.2 billion dollars in average according to "Foreign exchange transaction survey in Tokyo foreign exchange market" that the Tokyo foreign exchange market committee brought together, and 16% setback lingua from the previous year. It is said 30 percent from 20 percent in part though the proportion of the FX trade that occupies it to the trading volume of Tokyo market is unclear.
"The stock investment is a charm. "
When lecturing it in Washington in July, '07 who is the deliberation commissioner, vice president Kiyohiko Nishimura of Bank of Japan specifies, "The household of Japan having given birth as an investor who has a sense of existence affects the foreign exchange market".
It was said, "It is apparent to accomplish time of the post Rio housewifes' in Tokyo making the marketplace stabilize" that was the closing transaction (resistance) contrasting it with a professional investor ..the criticism of the exchange market to "Speculator in Switzerland that had been said kobolds in Zurich" before when it was made to make to unsteadiness...
The advance in the foreign exchange market on the 16th this month until 1 dollar = 86.27 yen when yen temporarily becomes high price since last December from the anxiety about the future of U.S. economy by the against dollar. The strong yen temporarily advanced to the level after an interval of seven months of about eight years in euro in the background of European financial instability in November of 107.32 yen and 01 1 euro = years in June.
Mr. Nobuhide Suzuki of 1 year or more in FX investment Reki (42 years old and Tokyo livings)｢It is true that efficiency of fund operation worsens drastic by this leverage regulation because it dealt with it having put 100 times the leverage on the average up to now. It sees it in efficiency of fund operation and the height of number of degrees of freedom of the trade environment etc. the leverage regulation is seen only ..dislike.. making of the individual investor though it entered the feeling FX investment of the charm. ｣It talks. However, it is assumed, "It is also true in the efficiency of fund operation side and the trade environment that the charms are relatively higher than the stock investments", and will continue the FX trade in the future.
The market scale of the FX trade at the period on March, '09(keeping margin balance) decreased from the period on March, '08 that became the highest ever (696.4 billion yen) by 14.5% because of the strong yen because of the Riemann shock of the autumn of 08 years, and became 595.1 billion yen according to the examination of Yano Econimic Research Institute. The number of accounts was 1.92 million accounts of the proportion 55.3% increase of the previous year, and the trading volume was 1 quadrillion 641 trillion yen of 169.4% increase.
The market scale predicts to this laboratory 700 billion yen and the number of accounts about the period on March, '10 that it reaches 2.6 million accounts.
It is expected that the period on March, '11 drastic decreases from quadrillion yen to 1.5 quadrillion yen by the influence of the leverage regulation though the trading volume expects two quadrillion yen from 1.5 quadrillion yen of the previous year level or 20% super-increase.
http://www.bloomberg.co.jp/apps/news?pid=90900001&sid=a6aXSyEeKcBA
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